5 Steps to Build a Driver-Based Forecast
Financial forecasting plays a key role in driver-based budgeting by linking key business activities to future financial outcomes, enabling more accurate and responsive budget planning. If you wonder how to build a strong driver-based forecast, here are the five best approaches:
1. Identify Key Business Drivers
The business drivers are the critical factors that impact a company’s performance and outcomes. There are many activities that drive operational and financial results. So, it’s important to understand and focus on these drivers to make strategic decisions, maximise profit and achieve sustainable growth.
2. Collect Historical Data
Gathering historical data involves collecting information about past events through a system. The main source of this data is from original documents, interpretations, etc. Effective historical information must be carefully collected for accurate analysis and results.
3. Prioritise Practice
When building forecasts, it’s most effective to focus on practical, measurable drivers, especially for revenues and operating expenses. These areas often have clear cause-and-effect relationships, like how an increase in sales inquiries leads to higher revenue. Therefore, it’s better to rely on what can be clearly measured and tied to business results.
4. Regularly Review and Update
Regularly reviewing and updating your forecast keeps it aligned with current business conditions. As driver values change over time, refreshing the model ensures continued accuracy and relevance. This ongoing process helps teams stay proactive and quickly adjust plans when needed.
5. Avoid Complexity
As a last tip, it’s essential to distinguish between models and industries and focus on key elements, rather than complex and unnecessary drivers. Keep the forecasting model simple by focusing only on the most important drivers. Too much detail can make the model hard to manage and less useful. A clear approach is easier to update and act on.